TODAY · EASTERN TIME

Today’s Best Picks

The highest available first-points player probability on today’s slate, with that game’s possession and selected-player method forecasts.

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TODAY’S SLATE

Today’s Games

Tip times shown in Eastern Time · free throws count as first points

Matchup / tip	Game status	First-points pick	Forecast	View predictions
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WALK-FORWARD REPLAY

Past predictions & results

Choose a stored date to compare a historical model replay with what happened. Replays use saved data from earlier dates; they are not predictions saved before tipoff.

ACTIVE MODELS · COMPLETED PAST GAMES

Accuracy to date

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First possession—Loading graded predictions…

First points player—Made free throws included.

Selected player’s method—When our selected player scores first.

Correct picks ÷ graded picks. Today’s games are excluded (Eastern Time). Method accuracy is conditional on our selected player scoring first—not the chance of getting both player and method right. Ties and unresolved evidence are excluded.

Historical replays use only earlier-date game history but were reconstructed later. Saved pregame predictions take precedence; each game is counted once. These are different types of evidence, not a single prospective validation.

HISTORICAL SCHEDULE

Stored games by date

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Matchup	Final	Evidence
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FIRST POINTS · FREE THROWS INCLUDED

Three opening predictions

Select any stored game.

Select a game

1 · FIRST POSSESSION—Select a game

2 · FIRST POINTS PLAYER—Includes made free throws

3 · SELECTED PLAYER’S METHOD—If the selected player scores first · FT included

Earlier dates only. These previews are not saved pregame snapshots. Possession and method estimates have not yet been validated prospectively.

FIRST POINTS · FREE THROWS INCLUDED

First points ranking

The same first-points forecast as the three opening cards.

AWAITING GAME

The complete ranking will appear here after a game is selected.

FORECAST SOURCE — —

FIRST POINTS PICK — —

ACTUAL FIRST POINTS — —

Rank	Starter	Team	First points %

The same first-points probabilities as Three opening predictions; made free throws count. The verified actual scorer is highlighted. Historical replays were reconstructed later, not saved before tipoff. Ties are not forced into picks and unknown results remain unresolved.

Saved pregame predictions & actual results

SAVED BEFORE TIP · FIRST POINTS INCLUDE FREE THROWS

Saved pregame forecasts

The original possession, scorer, and selected-player method forecasts stay fixed. Results below use the latest saved grading evidence, not the reconstructed historical replays.

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Latest 20 captures · independent of the replay date · times shown in Eastern Time
Game / saved before tip	1 · First possession	2 · First points player	3 · Selected player’s method
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Method comparison & grading rules

Both methods predict how the same selected player will score, if that player scores first. Conditional accuracy is measured only when that player scores first and the method is known. A wrong player is a player + method miss, not a conditional-method miss.

Method model	Conditional hits / picks	Conditional accuracy	Brier / log loss	Player + method hits / graded
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No history is backfilled into this forward test. Unknown evidence stays unresolved; void games are excluded. Ties are not forced into picks. An outside-ten scorer counts as a player and combined miss, but is excluded from player probability scores. Lower Brier and log loss are better; no model is promoted automatically.

Behind the predictions

Model performance, watchlists, methodology, and historical research.

Visit Model Research →